Dec 1, 2023·edited Dec 1, 2023Liked by Generation Squeeze
I think complaints about the responsibility of the current government are tricky -- I saw an estimate that policy changes the liberals brought in (mostly reversing the age increase for OAS before it came into place and the benefit increase for seniors 75+) would cost $50 billion in the next 5 years, above and beyond population aging. This isn't the majority of the increase, but it is a major increase. On the other hand, they did inherit a situation where the partial step towards sustainability was to (effectively) cut benefits rather than raise more revenue. And there's a strong incentive for ad hoc increases to OAS and GIS (which lots of previous governments have done too) because the way it's indexed can make it fall behind wages in the long run.
Totally makes sense to focus more on revenue (that many decades of governments did fail to collect!) than benefits, especially because targeting towards need is hard for a group that has on average more wealth than income. But I can see why people don't want to let the current government off the hook (especially for OAS) for not only not fixing the problem but making it worse. Although, I have also seen a lot of stuff in news and opinion pieces recently suggesting cutting OAS for high-income seniors, which maybe distracts from the fact that revenue increases are needed for healthcare too.
Yes, it is trickle to accuse the current governments. However, they did make commitments to solve some of these problems. Commitments ignored when elected. There are many cascading impacts to decisions and one of which is problems continue to escalate and become more difficult to solve when ignored. For example, increasing the age to qualify for OAS. Good or bad, the intention was to start addressing one of the issues raised here.
On a positive note, the changes to CPP announced by the Liberals is a good step. Both would have been appropriate.
At the same time, immigration is important providing they work to fill the gap of declining birth rates. But, when we dig into the details, there are built in obstacles to attract workers.
IMHO, the biggest issue we face are Bandaid approaches designed to pacify voters and not really solve anything.
And, after discussing personal investment options with some advisors recently, I was made aware of how the pension systems in Norway and The Netherlands work. They have no government subsidies (like OAS) and function like CPP with higher contributions and income caps. Much like the US social security system. The difference being those plans (like CPP) are properly invested vs the US system is only invested in government bonds. The impact of appropriate investment is that CPP and the US system have assets equaling $8 per capita whereas the Norway system holds $270,000 per capita. Canada could eliminate OAS with appropriate CPP contributions.
GIS/OAS are indexed with CPI, so if real wages increase they replaces a smaller percentage of average wages. (This is subtly different from CPP, which is also indexed by CPI but starting from a base related to contributions and therefore wages.) So the 'same' purchasing power would result in more *relative* poverty for GIS in particular, and for both GIS and OAS potentially increasing disparity between incomes of workers and retirees over time. Although, as you are aware, the CPI-indexing also means they might fall behind the real cost of living. :)
Paul is correct collecting more taxes to ensure that there is enough in the pool for future generations.
The power of pooling for sharing fairly! For now, the younger generation needs to act in solidarity. Older people vote-politicians listen. Younger people need not only to vote but even more importantly to make noise- draw attention. That can only happen through collective action. Rather than listening to the likes of Joe Rogan and Jordan Peterson that emphasize individualism.... young people need to listen to read the likes of Astra Taylor that emphasize solidarity collective action. She does not preach she tells how to do it. How she did it. How she overcame huge student debt through collective action. Listen to Astra on The CBC Radio Ideas: Massey Lectures 2023.
I don't listen to Rogan... im not a rugged individualist, etc.
However, asking solidarity from a generation that's giving up on family life because we can't afford million dollar shacks that our parents bought for a nickel is rich.
How about some solidarity from the rich elderly who's 100K home is now 1.7 million? How about that person pay more for tgeir own care?
Dec 1, 2023·edited Dec 1, 2023Liked by Kareem Kudus
Majorly agree. I think people ignore that long-term fixes have a huge cost to young(er-than-middle-aged) adults in terms of getting to live normal lives, even if things even out in pure financial terms in the long run. There's a huge huge double standard where we've accepted major lifestyle decline for young adults and still expect that older adults ought to be totally insulated from living standards that, in the short-term, are declining for everyone else, even if they pay a little extra in ways that don't really affect their lifestyle (and maybe not even during their lifetime). That's probably the only thing that's politically achievable, but it's also already a huge gift to older generations from young ones. I don't think we need to be asked for even more patience.
Abe and Valerie are right on the money! We should absolutely be acknowledging the huge adaptations younger people are already making, in terms of years of education (at far higher costs), where they live, whether and when to start families, and a whole raft of climate related changes. They deserve credit and appreciation for these things. Shifting our tax system to focus less on income, and more on wealth (especially housing wealth) is one way in which older folks who've enjoyed the good fortune of seeing huge housing wealth gains can contribute a bit more to cover the rising costs of caring for our large, aging, baby boom generation.
I spent the afternoon yesterday encouraging people to sign a petition. It was from fairvote.ca regarding a Federal private members' vote in February, to hold a citizen's assembly on election reform.
My basic thinking is if one wants a better game, change the rules, just as the NHL increased penalties for fighting and the skill level improved. See
Better representation should create better and longer term thinking, as well as less adversarial dialogue and a wider consensus. These things are needed to make the kind of big changes we need to support the squeezed generation.
100% agree!!! We need a lower voting age and elimination of first past the post. Trudeau lost my respect very early on when it was clear that he wasn't going to keep his promise on electoral reform. That was the MAIN reason I voted for him. Fairvote are working hard! They have a lot of great evidence that makes me really believe this is a huge piece of the puzzle leading to not only generational fairness but also fairness for minorities and vulnerable groups. Why do we put up with the old boys club that runs our provinces and our country when clearly it isn't working? And if I were a working, tax paying 16 year old I would definitely want representation. When I was in grad school one of my profs always said "Look for who isn't in the room, and start there." And that advice still holds true in so many circumstances. One question: Are there any parties/politicians leading the way on this already? I know NDP put forward something in 2022 but I never had the time to go back and follow up. Here is a link: https://www.ndp.ca/news/new-democrats-want-young-canadians-have-voice-issues-matter
Of course, you are right... how foolish of me. Astra Taylor has nothing to offer...you are screwed so just sit there and live with it. Enjoy your pity party.
I think complaints about the responsibility of the current government are tricky -- I saw an estimate that policy changes the liberals brought in (mostly reversing the age increase for OAS before it came into place and the benefit increase for seniors 75+) would cost $50 billion in the next 5 years, above and beyond population aging. This isn't the majority of the increase, but it is a major increase. On the other hand, they did inherit a situation where the partial step towards sustainability was to (effectively) cut benefits rather than raise more revenue. And there's a strong incentive for ad hoc increases to OAS and GIS (which lots of previous governments have done too) because the way it's indexed can make it fall behind wages in the long run.
Totally makes sense to focus more on revenue (that many decades of governments did fail to collect!) than benefits, especially because targeting towards need is hard for a group that has on average more wealth than income. But I can see why people don't want to let the current government off the hook (especially for OAS) for not only not fixing the problem but making it worse. Although, I have also seen a lot of stuff in news and opinion pieces recently suggesting cutting OAS for high-income seniors, which maybe distracts from the fact that revenue increases are needed for healthcare too.
Yes, it is trickle to accuse the current governments. However, they did make commitments to solve some of these problems. Commitments ignored when elected. There are many cascading impacts to decisions and one of which is problems continue to escalate and become more difficult to solve when ignored. For example, increasing the age to qualify for OAS. Good or bad, the intention was to start addressing one of the issues raised here.
On a positive note, the changes to CPP announced by the Liberals is a good step. Both would have been appropriate.
At the same time, immigration is important providing they work to fill the gap of declining birth rates. But, when we dig into the details, there are built in obstacles to attract workers.
IMHO, the biggest issue we face are Bandaid approaches designed to pacify voters and not really solve anything.
And, after discussing personal investment options with some advisors recently, I was made aware of how the pension systems in Norway and The Netherlands work. They have no government subsidies (like OAS) and function like CPP with higher contributions and income caps. Much like the US social security system. The difference being those plans (like CPP) are properly invested vs the US system is only invested in government bonds. The impact of appropriate investment is that CPP and the US system have assets equaling $8 per capita whereas the Norway system holds $270,000 per capita. Canada could eliminate OAS with appropriate CPP contributions.
Great insights as always Valerie!
So curious about that $50 billion estimate, any chance you can send over the source?
Also I'm wondering, what's the thinking behind "the way it's indexed can make it fall behind wages in the long run"?
It came from here (in the paragraph above the graph with costs) but no details about how they got it:
https://thehub.ca/2023-11-30/trevor-tombe-one-straightforward-way-to-balance-the-budget-cut-seniors-benefits/
GIS/OAS are indexed with CPI, so if real wages increase they replaces a smaller percentage of average wages. (This is subtly different from CPP, which is also indexed by CPI but starting from a base related to contributions and therefore wages.) So the 'same' purchasing power would result in more *relative* poverty for GIS in particular, and for both GIS and OAS potentially increasing disparity between incomes of workers and retirees over time. Although, as you are aware, the CPI-indexing also means they might fall behind the real cost of living. :)
I see what you mean now... thanks! You have a great understanding of this stuff, happy to have the opportunity to discuss with you here!
Paul is correct collecting more taxes to ensure that there is enough in the pool for future generations.
The power of pooling for sharing fairly! For now, the younger generation needs to act in solidarity. Older people vote-politicians listen. Younger people need not only to vote but even more importantly to make noise- draw attention. That can only happen through collective action. Rather than listening to the likes of Joe Rogan and Jordan Peterson that emphasize individualism.... young people need to listen to read the likes of Astra Taylor that emphasize solidarity collective action. She does not preach she tells how to do it. How she did it. How she overcame huge student debt through collective action. Listen to Astra on The CBC Radio Ideas: Massey Lectures 2023.
Lots of generalities here.
I don't listen to Rogan... im not a rugged individualist, etc.
However, asking solidarity from a generation that's giving up on family life because we can't afford million dollar shacks that our parents bought for a nickel is rich.
How about some solidarity from the rich elderly who's 100K home is now 1.7 million? How about that person pay more for tgeir own care?
Majorly agree. I think people ignore that long-term fixes have a huge cost to young(er-than-middle-aged) adults in terms of getting to live normal lives, even if things even out in pure financial terms in the long run. There's a huge huge double standard where we've accepted major lifestyle decline for young adults and still expect that older adults ought to be totally insulated from living standards that, in the short-term, are declining for everyone else, even if they pay a little extra in ways that don't really affect their lifestyle (and maybe not even during their lifetime). That's probably the only thing that's politically achievable, but it's also already a huge gift to older generations from young ones. I don't think we need to be asked for even more patience.
Abe and Valerie are right on the money! We should absolutely be acknowledging the huge adaptations younger people are already making, in terms of years of education (at far higher costs), where they live, whether and when to start families, and a whole raft of climate related changes. They deserve credit and appreciation for these things. Shifting our tax system to focus less on income, and more on wealth (especially housing wealth) is one way in which older folks who've enjoyed the good fortune of seeing huge housing wealth gains can contribute a bit more to cover the rising costs of caring for our large, aging, baby boom generation.
I spent the afternoon yesterday encouraging people to sign a petition. It was from fairvote.ca regarding a Federal private members' vote in February, to hold a citizen's assembly on election reform.
My basic thinking is if one wants a better game, change the rules, just as the NHL increased penalties for fighting and the skill level improved. See
https://www.fairvote.ca/a-parliament-more-like-us/ for evidence that other voting systems enable more women and young people to get elected.
Better representation should create better and longer term thinking, as well as less adversarial dialogue and a wider consensus. These things are needed to make the kind of big changes we need to support the squeezed generation.
100% agree!!! We need a lower voting age and elimination of first past the post. Trudeau lost my respect very early on when it was clear that he wasn't going to keep his promise on electoral reform. That was the MAIN reason I voted for him. Fairvote are working hard! They have a lot of great evidence that makes me really believe this is a huge piece of the puzzle leading to not only generational fairness but also fairness for minorities and vulnerable groups. Why do we put up with the old boys club that runs our provinces and our country when clearly it isn't working? And if I were a working, tax paying 16 year old I would definitely want representation. When I was in grad school one of my profs always said "Look for who isn't in the room, and start there." And that advice still holds true in so many circumstances. One question: Are there any parties/politicians leading the way on this already? I know NDP put forward something in 2022 but I never had the time to go back and follow up. Here is a link: https://www.ndp.ca/news/new-democrats-want-young-canadians-have-voice-issues-matter
How does this relate? Perhaps both groups could cross promote to gain a wider reach.
Of course, you are right... how foolish of me. Astra Taylor has nothing to offer...you are screwed so just sit there and live with it. Enjoy your pity party.